We’d like to know too, and here are our thoughts after speaking with the top real estate agents and other big investors in the San Francisco / San Jose Bay Area.
Short answer: Sell NOW before prices drop a further 10-20% during the rest of 2020 into 2021-2022. Otherwise, wait at least 5-10 years for prices reach “normal” again – and it will probably take longer to approach a “new normal” but your guess is as good as ours!
Yes we’re biased, but this is our gut belief as of April 2020. We do not think we’ve seen a “true bottom” in the stock market yet… recent layoffs and the oil price crash might be foreshocks of greater drops to come.
Based on Flyhomes’ March 2020 report of MLS activity in the San Francisco / San Jose Bay Area, we see that fewer people are selling houses – but the people who are are listing their houses close to Redfin estimates / comparable sales (no price wars at the moment), and buyers who DO buy are closing faster due to fewer overall offers tendered. This reporting corroborates what we’ve already been seeing in our daily market reports for selected cities around the bay area of prior listings moving from “active” to “withdrawn.”
Aside from Flyhomes highlighting MLS data, we’ve also heard from fellow investors and real estate agents of buyers backing out of existing deals, or trying to force price reductions at this unfortunate moment on reluctant sellers.
Our agent and investor connections tell us that people selling their houses on market now are more “serious” sellers – and more motivated. People who were less serious have pulled their listings not wanting to sell at a discount… and that discount will widen over time as layoffs and unemployment, bankruptcy, tighter lending standards, and lower tech company share prices for RSU down payments all shrink the bay area home buyer pool.
Most of our business partners are waiting for the socio-economic picture to settle down into whatever the new “new normal” becomes. Will we see mandatory vaccinations, elimination of paper currency (cash, paper money, US dollar bills), mandatory US citizen tracking via cell phone/GPS/network data, and continued social disruption – for health reasons of course? Will we see 35% unemployment and 50% “correction” in the stock markets? Oil prices went negative today, in an historic first.
Nobody knows the future. We just know what we don’t know, and many people are expecting either recession or depression for at least two years to come while the world order adjusts, wiggles, shakes, and settles in for the rest of our new century.
Meanwhile, although we are more conservative, Shark Fin continues to buy houses ALL CASH with a 7 day close. Most of our deals close in 7-14 days, but for the right property and situation, we can offer better terms.
Shark Fin Properties buys and acquires houses from homeowners in distress due to:
- economic difficulty – debt, unemployment
- death, probate, inheritance
- expensive house problems: cracked foundation, fire damage, burned out houses, dry rot, termites, mold, unsanitary squatters, tenants who haven’t paid rent in over six months
- CoronaVirus, SARS-COV-2, nCoV-19, COVID-19
To sell your house quickly all-cash without repairs, contact us today for your free consultation.
Ken & the Seal Team